A lot of sports bettors may hear handicappers talk about their winning percentage and draw conclusions, but when it comes to sports betting winning percentage doesn’t tell you much, unless you know the average odds a player is wagering on over an extended period of time.
If a bettor is playing the moneyline, they are picking which team will win the game outright, regardless of how close the game ends up. Although selecting the winner may seem easier than worrying about the point spread, it’s not as simple as just picking the better team.
The odds markers want to get close to equal action on both sides, so the lines are set to make the favorite a risk. On the other side, the reward is more profitable if you can predict an upset at the right time.
A standard bet with a point spread is -110. The number with a (- minus) in front of it shows how much you have to risk to win an extra $100 in profit. That amount you are risking on the favorite is the amount charged by a sportsbook for taking a bet, and it is often referred to as "vig" or "juice."
A number with a ( plus) in front of it is how much additional profit you would make off a $100 bet, and means that team is the underdog.
If you are betting standard -110 favorites, you need to win 52.4% of your bets long term to turn a profit. However, with money line bets, the odds for most games are not just -110. If you are mainly picking favorites, it is possible to win alot more than 52.4% of the time and still lose money long-term.
But if you are playing more underdogs, it is also possible to win far less than 50% of your bets and still turn a profit!
For example, let’s say the Packers are playing the Bears. Instead of playing the point spread, you want to back the favored Packers on the money line at -270, instead of the Bears who are a 220 underdog.
Although you believe the Packers will win this game, the odds give you something to think about. If you take Green Bay on the money line, you have to risk $270 to win $100. On the other side, you can put $100 on Chicago with a chance to gain $220 of profit.
If you are thinking about this long term, you only need a 220 underdog to win 32 times out of 100 in order to turn a profit. On the other side, you need a 270 favorite to win 73.1% of the time for these types of plays to benefit you.
You can draw your own conclusions, but from my experience, long term it is best to make your favorite plays risking as little juice as possible.
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The Handicapperchic simulation model, which simulates every Football game thousands’ of times, is up +47.65 units over the last three years. We have released 520 total games with 284 WINS and 236 losses ATS for a win % of 54.62%. A $100 bettor of our NFL would have netted a profit of $4,765 and, a $1,000 bettor would have won $47,650 just on NFL. We have released only a small number of NFL games so far this season.
| Title: Winning percentage alone does not tell the full story in sports betting
| Author: David Marotta
| Date: Oct 05, 2022