Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving NFL games are finally here and there are some great games on schedule to kick off Week 12 of the season.

Things kick off in Detroit where the Detroit Lions are a 9-point underdog to the Buffalo Bills. In the afternoon, the Dallas Cowboys are hosting the New York Giants where they are 9-point favorites.

Capping off the three-game slate is a matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots where Minnesota is a field goal favorite.

Click the image for live odds

Starting with the matchup between the Lions and Bills, although the Bills are a massive 9-point favorite, it is Detroit who is taking in the majority of the action on the spread. The Lions 9 line is seeing 59% of all bets placed and 64% of the betting handle.

The Bills moneyline though has seen even more action with 76% of bets and 72% of the money. As for the game total, the 54.5 total is looking at 55% of bets and 62% of the money on the over.

The public has certainly had an input on the odds here as the line originally opened at -10 points in favor of Buffalo but with the heavy action on Detroit, it came down to 9 points.

Moving on to the matchup between the Cowboys and Giants, a 9-point spread comes off as very surprising given the success of both teams this season. The moneyline odds have seen true bets on them with 72% of total bets and 83% of the betting handle. The spread bets are all in on the Giants though with 58% of bets and 54% of the money that is being bet. On the point total, the over is looking at a whopping 74% of bets and 78% of the money.

The last time the Giants and Cowboys played in Week 3, the game finished with the Giants keeping things close on a 23-16 loss. The Giants have also gone 7-3 ATS this season with a 1.6 average cover margin.

Finishing off the night with the Vikings and Patriots matchup, the public is all over Minnesota as they sit with an 8-2 record. Their moneyline odds are looking at 68% of bets and 70% of the money being bet. On the spread, the Vikings are also taking 74% of bets by 59% of the betting handle.

The 42.5-point total is seeing plenty of action on the under with 56% of total bets and 78% of the betting handle.

Although they are the underdog and taking in less action than the Vikings, this could be the time to fade the public as the Patriots have covered the spread in three straight games and in six of their last seven.

TURKEY DAY GAME DAY!!@onlocationexp | #BUFvsDET pic.twitter.com/i0PTr58nCT

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 24, 2022

The Handicapperchic simulation model, which simulates every Football game thousands’ of times, is up +47.65 units over the last three years. We have released 520 total games with 284 WINS and 236 losses ATS for a win % of 54.62%. A $100 bettor of our NFL would have netted a profit of $4,765 and, a $1,000 bettor would have won $47,650 just on NFL. We have released only a small number of NFL games so far this season.

| Title: NFL Thanksgiving Day Public Betting Trends
| Author: Sam Profeta
| Date: Nov 24, 2022