The #4 Washington Huskies (12-0, 9-0) will face the #6 Oregon Ducks (11-1, 8-1) at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. According to ESPN Bet, after opening up as a 7.5-point favorite, the Ducks are now a 9.5-point favorite, and the total has dropped from 68 to 66.5. On the moneyline, Oregon is a -380 favorite, and Washington is a 300 dog.
When these two teams met on October 14 this season, the Huskies protected their home turf, winning 36-33. Washington went on a 53-yard drive in two plays to score the game-winning touchdown with 1:38 left.
Despite losing the first matchup, the Ducks won several categories in the box score. Oregon out gained Washington 541 to 415 in total yards, and the Huskies committed the game’s only turnover. The Ducks also possessed the ball for 34 minutes and 21 seconds, led by Bo Nix, who threw for 337 yards and two touchdowns. On the ground, Bucky Irving led Oregon with 127 rushing yards and a touchdown.
On the Washington side, Michael Penix Jr threw for 302 yards with four touchdowns and an interception, and running back Dillon Johnson rushed for 100 yards and a touchdown.
The Ducks have been excellent on both sides of the ball. Oregon is first in the conference averaging 541.1 yards per game and 45.3 ppg. On defense, the Ducks have allowed a Pac-12-best 15.9 ppg and are second-holding the competition to 306.9 yards per contest.
Washington is third, averaging 468.1 offensive yards and 38 ppg per game. The Huskies are sixth, allowing 23 ppg, and eighth in the Pac-12, allowing 399.8 yards per game.
This line strikes me as a little odd, with the team that won the first meeting as close to a double-digit dog. Oregon does have a stronger defense and is also rated as the third-best team overall according to the Football Power Index. The Huskies don’t rate as high but are still 13th in the Power Index.
Along with the defensive advantage, the revenge factor and line make Oregon an intriguing play. The Ducks are also 9-2-1 ATS this season, whereas Washington is just 5-6-1.
Oregon has won its last six games, with five of those wins coming by 14 points or more. Washington is undefeated, but their previous two wins have been decided by three points or less.
On the surface, although the line looks a little disrespectful, I will back the Ducks to cover, getting a 38-27 win.
Recommendation: Oregon -9.5
— GoDucks (@GoDucks) November 29, 2023
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| Title: Pac-12 Championship Preview
| Author: David Marotta
| Date: Nov 29th, 2023